This week (7.4-7.8, the same below), light and light rare earth products in the rare earth market showed a downward trend, and the decline rate of light rare earth was faster. The probability of major economies in Europe and the United States falling into economic stagnation in the second half of the year is relatively obvious, and export orders have obviously experienced signs of contraction. Although the upstream supply has also decreased, compared with the weakening degree of demand, it seems that there is still a surplus. The overall upstream pessimism has increased this week, and light and light rare earths have fallen into a more obvious bidding liquidation situation.
This week, praseodymium and neodymium products continued the downward trend of last week. With the withdrawal of various forces, demand and weak expectations, driven by the bidding pressure, the downward adjustment speed of upstream enterprises was significantly accelerated. The initiative of the market was the buyer, and the transaction price hit a low repeatedly due to the psychological influence of “buy up but not buy down”.
Affected by praseodymium and neodymium, the demand for other heavy rare earth products is also relatively cold, and gadolinium products decreased slightly. However, due to the slow decline in the price of heavy rare earth mines, dysprosium products stabilized at the end of last week, and suffered a slight decline synchronously due to the impact of the overall mood. Dysprosium oxide has fallen by 8.3% since April. In contrast, the historical high value of terbium products has been maintained for half a year, and the consumption of all parties in the industrial chain has been reduced in fear of high prices and hesitation. However, relatively speaking, the demand for terbium in recent times has improved compared with the previous time. The bulk cargo volume in the market is small and there are generally high prices, so the sensitivity to market news is slightly weak. For terbium at the current price, it is better to say that it is under the control of absolute volume rather than prolonging the operating space and period of decline, This has increased the pressure of stabilizing the price of terbium, so the bearish range of the industry’s cargo holders is much lower than that of dysprosium.
From the current macro perspective, the US dollar broke and rose. Some news said that it was to alleviate the upcoming stagflation in the United States, the US government was expected to relax tariffs on China, and the epidemic in many parts of the world fought back. In addition, the epidemic in various parts of the country was repeated, so the overall mood was pessimistic. From the perspective of current fundamentals, the rapid decline of rare earth prices has caused some pressure on downstream procurement. At present, the domestic rare earth indicators are not expected to increase. Most domestic production enterprises will actively complete most of the indicators this year. Long term association orders guarantee some downstream demand, and a small number of demand may lead to more intense bidding.
Post time: Jul-08-2022
